Overall Monthly Inflation Rate at 1.0 Percent

The overall monthly inflation for December 2023 was recorded at 1.0 percent from 0.9 percent recorded in the previous month. This outturn was mainly attributed to price movements in selected food items (see Figure 4).

Figure 4: Overall Monthly Inflation, December 2022- December 2023

Monthly Inflation Rates for Food and Non-Food

Monthly food inflation rate for December 2023 was recorded at 1.0 percent compared with 0.9 percent recorded in November 2023. This development was mainly attributed to general price movements for Meats (Fillet Steak, Rump Steak, Brisket, Mixed Cut, T-bone, Mince Meat, Ox-liver, Goat Meat, Chicken Frozen, Chicken Live) and Vegetables (Rape, Okra, Cabbage).

Monthly non-food inflation rate for December 2023 was recorded at 0.9 percent same as recorded in November 2023. This means on average prices of non-food items increased by 0.9

percent between November 2023 and December 2023. This was mainly attributed to increases in prices of non-food items such as Pharmaceutical products (Medix cough syrup, Kaolin/Anti Diarrhea, Magnesium Trisilicate, Throat lozenges (Vicks Kingo), Eye ointment (Tetracycline) and Purchase of vehicles (Toyota Hilux, Toyota corolla, Nissan Hardbody).

Overall Monthly Inflation Rate for Food and Non-Food Items, December 2022- December 2023 (%)

Read more>>Vol 249 of 2023 The Monthly December

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Economy Grows by 5.1%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for the third quarter of 2023 show that the economy grew by 5.1 percent from 7.5 percent in the third quarter of 2022.  This translates in a slowdown in growth of 2.4 percentage points compared to the corresponding quarter in 2022.  The estimates are based on the year- on-year comparison of GDP at constant 2010 prices (see Figure 1) .

Figure 1: Quarterly GDP Growth Rates at Constant 2010 Prices, Q1 2021 – Q3** 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Industry Contribution to the 5.1 % growth in Q3 2023

The growth was mainly attributed to the positive performance of the following industries: Information & communication (2.1 percentage points), Construction (1.2% ppt), Education (1.1 ppt), Financial services (0.4 ppt), Human health and social work activities (0.2 ppt) and Accommodation and food service (0.2 ppt).

On the other hand, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (-0.3 ppt), along with Wholesale and retail trade (-0.1 ppt) and Administrative and support service activities (-0.1 ppt) had negative impacts on GDP growth. Industry growth contributions provide a relative measure of the importance to economic growth during a specified period.

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The 2024 National Statistical Release Calendar (NSRC) Published

The National Statistical Release Calendar (NSRC) highlights published and upcoming releases of official statistics by the National Statistical System (NSS). The NSS comprises data producers; data suppliers; users; research institutions; higher education institutions; and the media. Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats) and other producers of official statistics are the providers of the content of this calendar. The NSRC provides information for release on specific dates on a daily, fortnightly, monthly, quarterly, and annual basis. 

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TRADE BALANCE, AUG. 2023 (K’ Billion)

The Country Recorded a Trade Surplus of K2.31 Billion in August 2023

 

The country recorded a trade surplus of K2.31 billion in August 2023 compared to a surplus of K2.33 billion in July 2023 (see Table 15).

Exports mainly comprising domestically produced goods, increased by 9.1 percent to K19.1 billion in August 2023 from K17.5 billion in July 2023. This was mainly on account of 7.9, 17.2, 16.2 and 13.1 percent increases in export earnings from Intermediate goods, Raw materials, Capital goods and Consumer goods, respectively (see Table 2.2 in Annex).

Imports increased by 10.7 percent to K16.8 billion in August 2023 from K15.1 billion in July 2023. This was mainly as a result of 12.4, 19.8, 5.0 and 6.7 percent increases in import bills of Consumer goods Capital goods, Intermediate goods, and Raw materials, respectively (see Table 2.2 in Annex).  

Table 15: Total Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, Aug. 2023 (K’ Billion)

Months Imports Domestic Exports Total Exports Trade Balance
Jan-23 14.9 18.8 20.0 5.1
Feb-23 15.3 15.0 16.0 0.7
Mar-23 19.8 15.9 17.0 -2.8
Quarter1 50.1 49.7 53.0 2.9
Apr-23 15.6 13.8 15.1 -0.5
May-23 17.1 15.9 17.1 0.0
Jun-23 15.7 15.5 16.6 0.9
Quarter2 48.4 45.2 48.9 0.5
Jul-23* 15.1 16.5 17.5 2.3
Aug-23* 16.8 16.8 19.1 2.3
Total: 130.4 128.1 138.5 8.0

Source: ZamStats, 2023

Note: These trade data are compiled based on the General Trade System 

Domestic Exports-These are Commodities grown, produced or manufactured locally including commodities imported from foreign countries that have been significantly changed or enhanced in value. Re-Exports=Total Exports-Domestic Exports. (*) Provisional 

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Overall Monthly Inflation Rate for September 2023 at 0.7 Percent

The overall monthly inflation for September 2023 was recorded at 0.7 percent compared with 0.8 percent recorded in the previous month. This outturn was mainly attributed to price movements in selected food and non-food items (see Figure 5).

Figure 5: Overall Monthly Inflation, September 2022 – September 2023

Monthly Inflation Rates for Food and Non-Food Items

Monthly food inflation for September 2023 was recorded at 0.5 percent compared with 0.8 percent in August 2023. This development was mainly attributed to general price movements for Meats (Rump Steak, Brisket, Beef Sausages, Ox-liver and Offals); Fish (Dried Kapenta Mpulungu, Dried Kapenta and Chisense) and Vegetables (Rape, Spinach, Okra, Cabbage, Tomatoes and Onion).  

Monthly non-food inflation for September 2023 was recorded at 0.9 percent compared to 0.8

percent in August 2023. This outturn was mainly attributed to increases in prices of items such as Purchase of motor vehicles (Toyota corolla, Toyota Hilux, Nissan Pick (Nissan Hardbody) and Fuels and Lubricants (Diesel, Petrol,) (see Table 10).

Table 10: Overall Monthly Inflation Rate for Food and Non-Food Items, September 2022 – September 2023 (%)

  Weight:  Sep-

2022 

Oct-

2022 

Nov-

2022 

Dec-

2022 

Jan – 2023  Feb – 2023  Mar – 2023  Apr –

2023 

May – 2023  Jun – 2023  July – 2023  Aug –

2023 

Sep –

2023 

Total 1,000.00 -0.4 0.2 0.7 0.8 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7
Food 534.85 -0.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5
Non-

Food

465.15 -0.6 -0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.9 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9

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Year-on-Year Inflation for September 2023 at 12.0 Percent

Annual inflation for September 2023 increased to 12.0 percent from 10.8 percent recorded in August, 2023. This means that on average, prices of goods and services increased by 12.0 percent between September 2022 and September 2023 (see Figure 3). This development was mainly attributed to price movements of selected food and non-food items.

Figure 3: Annual Inflation Rate, September 2022- September 2023 (%)

 

Annual Food and Non-Food Inflation

Annual food inflation for September 2023 was recorded at 13.4 percent compared to 12.6 percent in the previous month (see Figure 4). This means on average prices of food items increased by 13.4 percent between September 2022 and September 2023. This outturn was mainly attributed to price movements in Cereals (i.e. Breakfast & Roller meal, Bread flour, Maize grain, Rice and Meats (Mixt cut, Fillet steak, T-bone, Chicken live).

The annual non-food inflation for September 2023 was recorded at 10.1 percent compared to 8.5 percent. This outturn was mainly attributed to increases in prices of non-food items such as Purchase of vehicles (Toyota hilux, Toyota corolla, Nissan Hardbody) and Fuels & Lubricants (i.e. Diesel, Petrol).

Figure 4: Annual Food and Non-Food Inflation, September 2022- September 2023 (%) 

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Economy Grows by 5.0% in Q2 of 2023

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for the second quarter of 2023 shows that the economy grew by 5.0 percent from 5.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022.  These estimates are based on the year- on-year comparison of GDP at constant 2010 prices (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Quarterly GDP Growth Rates at Constant 2010 Prices, Q1 2021 – Q2 2023 (%)

 

Industry Contribution to the 5.0% growth in Q2 2023 

The growth was mainly attributed to the positive contributions from the following industries; Information & communication (2.4 percentage points), Education (1.7 percentage points), Transport & storage (0.9 percentage points), Financial & insurance activities (0.7 percentage points) and Construction (0.5 percentage points). However negative contributions were recorded from Wholesale & retail trade (-1.2 percentage points), Agriculture, forestry & fishing (0.5 percentage points), Mining & quarrying (-0.3 percentage points) and Administrative & support services (-0.1 percentage points) (see Table 1).

Industry Growth Rates in the Second Quarter of 2023

At industry level, the highest growth rates in the second quarter were recorded in Information & communication at 25.6%. The others were Education (24.5%), Accommodation and food service activities (21.9%), Arts, entertainment & recreation (20.2%), Transport & storage (19.5%), Human health and social work activities (17.3%), Financial and insurance activities (14.0%) and Electricity (11.3%). On the other hand, negative growth rates were recorded in the following: Agriculture, forestry and fishing (-7.0%); Mining and quarrying (-3.6%); Wholesale and retail trade (-7.2%); Administrative and support service activities (-7.0%) and Professional, scientific and technical activities (-1.8%) (see Table 1).

Table 1: Gross Value-Added Growth Rates and Contribution to Growth at Constant 2010 Prices, Q2 2023

 

Industry

2022 Growth Rates (%)   2023 Growth Rates (%) Contribution to Growth (% pts)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1* Q2** 2023 Q2
Agriculture, forestry and fishing -4.9 -4.6 0.3 -28.9 -4.9 -7.0 -0.5
Mining and quarrying -7.4 -4.4 1.0 -4.2 -12.6 -3.6 -0.3
Manufacturing 3.4 11.8 4.9 -2.6 3.7 0.8 0.1
Electricity supply 9.2 7.4 11.6 9.5 -3.4 11.3 0.2
Water supply 4.1 4.7 10.2 6.5 4.5 2.0 0.0
Construction -7.1 -9.7 -10.3 -8.1 0.7 5.7 0.5
Wholesale and retail trade -1.9 2.9 1.6 2.4 -1.5 -7.2 -1.2
Transportation and storage 33.0 22.4 23.6 35.0 6.5 19.5 0.9
Accommodation and food service activities 26.2 74.8 113.2 79.1 60.1 21.9 0.4
Information and communication 40.4 42.9 53.4 46.2 28.0 25.6 2.4
Financial and insurance activities -5.2 -4.4 -4.8 7.8 14.3 14.0 0.7
Real estate activities 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.4 0.1
Professional, scientific and technical activities -13.1 12.2 -3.1 -1.4 25.8 -1.8 0.0
Administrative and support service activities 36.5 -32.5 -25.3 -8.4 11.5 -7.0 -0.1
Public administration and defense 14.1 7.6 4.2 -3.0 -1.2 0.5 0.0
Education 21.6 16.2 27.2 17.5 21.5 24.5 1.7
Human health and social work activities -6.9 -10.1 -6.7 7.4 12.8 17.3 0.3
Arts, entertainment and recreation 92.8 67.0 114.1 107.4 17.9 20.2 0.0
Other service activities -30.5 4.5 12.8 -23.3 14.3 12.0 0.1
Total for the economy 3.0 5.9 7.8 4.6 4.6 5.5 5.3
Taxes less subsidies on products -1.9 2.9 1.5 2.3 -1.5 -7.2 -0.3
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2.8 5.9 7.7 4.6 4.4 5.0 5.0

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The launch of the 2022 LCMS survey highlights, NSDS2 and SDG baseline report

Launch of the 2022 LCMS survey highlights, NSDS2 and SDG baseline report

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Launch of the 2022 LCMS survey highlights, NSDS2 and SDG baseline report

Launch of the 2022 LCMS survey highlights, NSDS2 and SDG baseline report

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