Crop Forecast Survey

Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (Lcms)

Labour Force Survey (LFS)

The Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats) in conjunction with the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) is mandated to provide the country with estimates of crop production for each agricultural season. This information is used to provide a sound-planning base for the country’s food security in a given year. In order to come up with this information, MoA through the Agriculture Statistics and Early Warning Section, in collaboration with ZamStats through the Agriculture Statistics Branch, conducts the Crop Forecasting Survey (CFS) during the months of March and April every year. The survey focuses on the current agricultural season which starts on 1st October of the current year and ends on 30th September of the following year.

Objectives of the Crop Forecasting Survey

  • To provide Government with reliable, empirical annual estimates of crop production statistics for the agricultural season.
  • To generate the annual National Food Balance Sheet.
  • To provide public institutions, the private sector and other stakeholders with forecasts of national, provincial and district level indicators of crop sector performance.
  • To provide statistics on the potential available marketable surplus for the major crops grown in the country.

The CFS obtains estimates from agricultural holdings (farmers) on the area under major crops as well as expected production and sales estimates, quantity and variety of seed, type of fertilizer used, carry over stocks, crop marketing and labour costs, among others during the season. The production estimates that are generated are used to assess the food security situation in the country and also to develop the National Food Balance Sheet (NFBS), which is used to determine the surplus or deficit of major cereals and tubers in the country. The NFBS includes information on the country’s Strategic Grain Reserve for the Season.

Information derived from the survey is also used for generating preliminary estimates of the contribution of the agriculture sector to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  The information from the CFS is further used as a tool to analyze the country’s overall food availability and requirements in order to obtain an estimate of the food deficit or surplus situation. The information is vital to Government, Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs), the private sector particularly traders, as well as Cooperating Partners (donors) and is useful for strategic planning and decision-making purposes.  Such strategic decisions may relate to local marketing and import/export issues.

The CFS covers all provinces of the country and is conducted in what ZamStats calls Enumeration Areas (EAs). A sample of EAs involving agricultural households is drawn using probability proportional to size sampling scheme. The EA is the smallest area with well-defined boundaries identified on a census map. A total sample of 680 EAs are allocated nationally to each province and district proportional to its size (in terms of households). Twenty households are randomly selected from each of the 680 EAs in the sample and interviewed in detail. 

Table below shows the distribution of CFS EAs by province. 

Province

Number of EAs Selected

Central

62

Copperbelt

68

Eastern

106

Luapula

72

Lusaka

34

Northern

116

North-western

60

Southern

94

Western

68

Total

680

 

The CFS covers three categories of agricultural households namely: Small-scale farmers, Medium-scale farmers and Large-scale farmers. The Small and Medium scale farmers are covered on a sample basis while the Large-scale farmers are covered on a 100 percent basis. A fixed number of 20 households are canvassed in each selected EA for Small and Medium scale farmers. The Large-scale farmers are captured in a separate sub-survey under the CFS on a 100 percent enumeration basis.

A Small-scale household is defined as a household cultivating 4.99 hectares of area under crops or less. Households cultivating between 5 and 19.99 hectares of area under crops are classified as Medium-scale households. All households cultivating 20 or more hectares of land and/or raising a specified number of poultry and/or livestock are classified as Large-Scale farmers.

The CFS collects information on area planted for each crop, expected production and sales, seed type, tillage method used, acquisition and usage of fertilizer etc. This information is based purely on farmer recall and estimation. The survey does not involve area measurement or direct field observation by the data collector as there are no field visits conducted. One of the reasons for relying on farmer recall and estimation is to reduce on measurement bias and error by the data collector.

Area expected to be harvested is also collected but is not used in the computation of yield. Only the area planted is used in yield computation. Yield is not calculated by the farmer but by the analysts at the data analysis stage. Yield is derived from quantity of expected production divided by the estimated area planted for each crop.

The Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS is a population-based household survey that collects data using structured personal interviews with household members. The survey is coordinated by Living Conditions Monitoring Branch, under the Economic Statistics Division.

The LCMS evolved from the Social Dimensions of Adjustment Priority Surveys conducted in 1991 (PSI) and 1993 (PSII), by the then Central Statistical Office. The first LCMS was conducted in 1996. Since then, seven (7) surveys have been undertaken. These are:-

  1. The Living Conditions Monitoring Survey I of 1996
  2. The Living Conditions Monitoring Survey II of 1998, and
  3. The Living Conditions Monitoring Survey III of 2002/2003
  4. The Living Conditions Monitoring Survey IV of 2004
  5. The Living Conditions Monitoring Survey V of 2006
  6. The Living Conditions Monitoring Survey VI of 2010
  7. The Living Conditions Monitoring Survey VII of 2015

The main objective of the LCMS is to measure the wellbeing of the Zambian population, and to provide trends in the different measures of social wellbeing over time, as well as to highlight and monitor the living conditions of the Zambian society. The survey includes a set of priority indicators on poverty and Living conditions that are periodically monitored and evaluated.

The LCMS has a normative point of departure that is, describing the Living conditions as good or bad, as improving or deteriorating and identifying those, which require policy action. It is designed in such a way that it provides estimates at national, provincial as well as residence (rural/urban) levels. The survey estimates are also disaggregated by age, sex and socio-economic strata.

It should be noted however, that the survey is not a fully-fledged survey on any of the topics covered; it is concerned with information necessary to monitor Living conditions. The survey collects information on the following areas of wellbeing or topics: -

  • Demography and migration
  • Orphan-hood
  • Marital Status
  • Health
  • Education
  • Economic activities
  • Income
  • Household assets
  • Household amenities and housing conditions
  • Household access to facilities
  • Self-assessed poverty and household coping strategies
  • Agricultural Production
  • Household expenditure
  • Community developmental issues
  • Child Health and Nutrition
  • Deaths in the household

The LCMS has a nationwide coverage on a sample basis. It covers both rural and urban areas in all the provinces of Zambia. The survey will also be able to provide data for each province in Zambia. Hence a very big sample size of Enumeration Areas (EAs) and an approximated number of households is drawn.

The LCMS employs a two-stage stratified cluster sample design. During the first stage, EAs are selected using the Probability Proportional to Estimated Size (PPES). The second stage involves systematically selecting households in an EA after Listing. During the survey, all households are listed before enumeration can be done.

Three types of questionnaires are used in the survey, namely: -

  1. The Listing Questionnaire - to be used for listing all the households residing in the selected EAs.
  2. The Main Questionnaire - to be used for collecting detailed information on all household members.
  3. The Prices Questionnaire: - to be used to collect data on unit prices of various commodities in the established trading places found in districts, provincial capitals and cities. This information is Vital for the harmonizing of regional differences in prices.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a household survey carried out by the ZamStats in collaboration with the Ministry of Labour and Social Security (MLSS). The LFS is a nation-wide survey covering household population in both rural and urban areas in all the ten provinces. The survey excludes populations in institutions such as correctional facilities (prisons) refugee camps, hospitals, or barracks.

The first Zambia Labour Force Survey was conducted in 1986. Follow up surveys were conducted in 2005, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. Since its inception in 1986, the major objective of the LFS has been to measure the size of the labour force and its characteristics (age, sex, industry, sector of employment, education, etc).

The LFS provides key indicators of labour market such as the Labour force participation rate; employment-to-population ratio; Status in employment; Employment by sector; Employment by occupation; Part-time workers; Unemployment; Youth employment; Employment in the informal sector; etc

Currently, the Agency produces  both quarterly labour force  and annual reports.

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