Overall monthly inflation increased to 2.1% in January 2023

The overall monthly inflation for January 2023 was recorded at 2.1 percent compared with 0.8 percent the previous month. This outturn was mainly attributed to price increases in food items (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: Overall Monthly Inflation, January 2022-January 2023

 

Monthly Inflation Rates for Food and Non-Food Items, January 2022-January 2023

Monthly food inflation for January 2023 was recorded at 2.8 percent an increase from 0.5 percent in December 2022. This development was mainly attributed to general price movements for Cereals (Breakfast Mealie Meal, Roller Mealie Meal, Maize Grain); Meat (Offal’s, Pork Chops, Goat Meat, Chicken Live, Tinned Meat); Fish (Frozen fish, Buka-buka, Dried Bream, Dried Kapenta Siavonga) and cooking oil.

Monthly non-food inflation for January 2023 remained the same, at 1.1 percent (see Table 5).

Table 5: Overall Monthly Inflation Rate for Food and Non-Food Items, Jan 2022-Jan 2023 (%)

Weight: Jan- 2022 Feb- 2022 Mar- 2022 Apr- 2022 May- 2022 June- 2022 July- 2022 Aug- 2022 Sep- 2022 Oct- 2022 Nov- 2022 Dec- 2022 Jan – 2023
Total 1,000.00 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.1
Food 534.85 3.1 1.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 2.8
Non- Food 465.15 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1

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Provincial Annual Inflation Rates, 2023 (%)

A disaggregation of the annual inflation by province shows that the annual inflation during the month under review increased for Central (8.4% from 7.2%); Eastern (9.0% from 6.4%); North- western (12.8% from 11.1 %). However, the annual inflation slowed down for Copperbelt (9.0% from 10.5%); Luapula (11.4% from 11.6%); Lusaka (10.4% from 10.9 %); Northern (8.9% from 11.1%); Southern (7.9 % from 9.1%); and Western (7.1% from 12.0%) (see Table 3).

Table 3: Provincial Annual Inflation Rates, January 2022-January 2023 (%)

Central Copperbelt Eastern Luapula Lusaka Northern North- Western Southern Western
Weight 107.19 219.68 88.98 50.60 283.89 65.72 32.33 109.19 42.42
Jan-22 11.3 18.1 13.6 17.2 15.8 20.0 12.3 12.3 7.2
Feb-22 13.1 17.9 12.0 16.2 14.8 14.1 9.3 12.2 6.8
Mar-22 10.9 16.7 9.2 15.7 13.0 13.5 12.1 11.0 12.6
Apr-22 7.0 15.6 8.7 15.0 10.3 12.9 13.5 10.8 10.4
May-22 6.8 13.8 6.6 13.8 8.0 13.2 13.2 10.5 11.7
Jun-22 6.4 12.3 6.6 11.5 8.2 12.5 13.9 10.9 10.5
Jul-22 6.6 12.0 5.9 11.6 8.7 13.5 12.3 11.5 11.3
Aug-22 6.8 11.0 5.2 10.4 9.3 13.1 12.7 11.6 11.5
Sep-22 7.1 11.7 5.0 9.8 10.2 11.5 12.7 10.7 10.9
Oct-22 6.2 11.5 6.3 8.4 10.1 10.6 11.7 9.6 12.6
Nov-22 5.9 11.0 6.9 9.1 10.9 10.7 10.7 8.8 12.1
Dec-22 7.2 10.5 6.4 11.6 10.9 11.1 11.1 9.1 12.0
Jan-23 8.4 9.0 9.0 11.4 10.4 8.9 12.8 7.9 7.1
Provincial Contributions to Overall Inflation of 9.4 Percent

Lusaka province contributed the highest at 3.0 percentage points while Copperbelt province contributed 1.9 percentage points to the overall annual inflation of 9.4 percent in the month under review. North-Western province contributed 4.0 percentage points, while Western province had the lowest contribution of 0.3 percentage points (see Table 4).

Table 4: Provincial Contribution to Overall Annual Inflation January 2022-January 2023 (%)
Province Weight Jan- 2022* Feb- 2022* Mar- 2022* Apr- 2022* May- 2022* June- 2022* July- 2022* Aug- 2022* Sep- 2022* Oct- 2022* Nov- 2022* Dec- 2022* Jan 2023*
National 1,000.00 15.1 14.2 13.1 11.5 10.2 9.7 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.4
Central 107.19 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9
Copperbelt 219.68 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 1.9
Eastern 88.98 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8
Luapula 50.60 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5
Lusaka 283.89 4.6 4.3 3.8 3.0 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.0
Northern 65.72 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
North- Western 32.33 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Southern 109.19 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8
Western 42.42 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3

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December 2022 records a Trade Deficit

The country recorded a trade deficit of K0.5 billion in December 2022 compared to a surplus of K2.8 billion in November 2022 (see Table 10).

Exports, mainly comprising domestically produced goods, decreased by 9.2 percent to K14.7 billion in December 2022 from K16.2 billion in November 2022. This was mainly on account of a 10.1, 11.1, and 8.9 percent decrease in export earnings from Intermediate goods, Consumer goods, and Raw Materials, respectively (see Table 3.2 in Annex).

Imports increased by 13.0 percent to K15.2 billion in December 2022 from K13.4 billion in November 2022. This was mainly as a result of 13.5, 31.4, 0.7, and 3.4 percent increases in import bills of, Intermediate goods, Capital goods, Consumer goods, and Raw Materials, respectively (see Table 3.2 in Annex).

Table 10: Total Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, Jan. to Dec 2022 (K’ Billion)
Months Imports Domestic Exports Total Exports Trade Balance
Jan-22® 10.2 16.5 17.0 6.9
Feb-22® 11.1 17.0 17.4 6.3
Mar-22® 12.7 18.1 19.0 6.3
Quarter1® 34.0 51.6 53.5 19.5
Apr-22® 12.3 15.9 16.7 4.4
May-22® 13.9 16.6 17.6 3.7
Jun-22® 14.1 15.3 16.6 2.5
Quarter2® 40.3 47.8 50.8 10.6
Jul-22 12.2 15.1 16.3 4.0
Aug-22 12.1 14.4 15.8 3.7
Sep-22 13.1 13.4 14.7 1.6
Quarter3® 37.4 42.9 46.8 9.4
Oct-22 12.3 14.0 15.2 2.8
Nov-22 13.4 15.3 16.2 2.8
Dec-22* 15.2 13.9 14.7 (0.5)
Quarter4® 40.9 43.3 46.0 5.2
Total 152.6 185.5 197.1 44.5

Source: ZamStats, 2023

Note: These trade data are compiled based on the General Trade System

Domestic Exports-These are Commodities grown, produced or manufactured locally including commodities imported from foreign countries that have been significantly changed or enhanced in value. Re-Exports=Total Exports-Domestic Exports. (*) Provisional

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Annual Inflation to 9.4% in January 2023 from 9.9% in December 2022

Annual inflation for January 2023 slowed down to 9.4 percent from 9.9 percent recorded in December, 2022. This means that on average, prices of goods and services increased by 9.4 percent between January 2022 and January 2023 (see Figure 1). This development was mainly attributed to the base effect 1of both food and non-food items.

Figure 1: Annual Inflation Rate, Jan 2022-Jan 2023 (%)

Annual Food and Non-Food Inflation

 Annual food inflation for January 2023 was recorded at 11.6 percent compared to 11.9 percent in December 2022 (see Figure 2). This development was mainly attributed to Meat (Beef Sausages, Mince Meat, Pork Chops, Frozen chicken); Milk products (Fresh Milk, Fresh Milk Super Milk, Sour milk, Powdered milk, Cheese) Fruits (Oranges, Lemons, Apples, Avocados, Raisins); Vegetables (Spinach, Chinese Cabbage, Sweet Potato Leaves-Kalembula, Cassava Leaves, Okra, Cucumber, Impwa, Maize cobs, Tomatoes, Carrots, Onion, Mushroom, Dried beans).

The annual non-food inflation for January 2023 was recorded at 6.4 percent from 7.3 percent in December 2022. This outturn was mainly attributed to decreases in prices of non-food items such as Fuels & lubricants (Diesel, Petrol, Lubricants).

1 Base Effect refers to the impact of an increase in the price level (i.e. previous year’s inflation) over the corresponding rise in price levels in the current year (i.e., current inflation)

Figure 2: Annual Food and Non-Food Inflation, Jan 2022-Jan 2023 (%)

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November 2022 records a Trade Surplus

The country recorded a trade surplus of K2.77 billion in November 2022 compared to a surplus of K2.84 billion in October 2022 (see Table 13). Exports mainly comprising domestically produced goods, increased by 6.8 percent to K16.2 billion in November 2022 from K15.2 billion in October 2022. This was mainly on account of 8.7 and 27.7 percent increase in export earnings from Intermediate goods and Consumer goods, respectively (see Table 3.2 in Annex).

Imports increased by 8.9 percent to K13.4 billion in November 2022 from K12.3 billion in October 2022. This was mainly as a result of 13.9, 16.9, and 4.5 percent increases in import bills of, Intermediate goods, Capital goods and Consumer good respectively (see Table 3.2 in Annex).

Table 13: Total Exports, Imports and Trade Balance, Jan. to Nov 2022 (K’ Billion)
Months Imports Domestic Exports Total Exports Trade Balance
Jan-22® 10.2 16.5 17.0 6.9
Feb-22® 11.1 17.0 17.4 6.3
Mar-22® 12.7 18.1 19.0 6.3
Quarter1® 34.0 51.6 53.5 19.5
Apr-22® 12.3 15.9 16.7 4.4
May-22® 13.9 16.6 17.6 3.7
Jun-22® 14.1 15.3 16.6 2.5
Quarter2® 40.3 47.8 50.8 10.6
Jul-22 12.2 15.1 16.3 4.0
Aug-22 12.1 14.4 15.8 3.7
Sep-22 13.1 13.4 14.7 1.6
Quarter3® 37.4 42.9 46.8 9.4
Oct-22 12.3 14.0 15.2 2.8
Nov-22* 13.4 15.3 16.2 2.8
Total: 137.4 171.6 182.4 45.0

Domestic Exports-These are Commodities grown, produced or manufactured locally including commodities imported from foreign countries that have been significantly changed or enhanced in value. Re-Exports=Total Exports-Domestic Exports. (*) Provisional

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Provincial Annual Inflation Rates

A disaggregation of the annual inflation by province shows that the annual inflation during the month under review increased for Central (7.2% from 5.9%), Luapula (11.6% from 9.1 %), Northern (11.1% from 10.7%), North-western (11.1% from 10.7 %), Southern (9.1 % from 8.8%). However, the

annual inflation slowed down for Copperbelt (10.5% from 11.0%), Eastern (6.4% from 6.9%), Western (12.0% from 12.1%); while it remained the same for Lusaka province at 10.9% (See Table 6).

Table 6: Provincial Annual Inflation Rates, December 2021-December 2022 (%)

Central Copperbelt Eastern Luapula Lusaka Northern North- Western Southern Western
Weight 107.19 219.68 88.98 50.60 283.89 65.72 32.33 109.19 42.42
Dec-21 14.1 18.2 16.4 17.6 16.0 22.5 16.4 13.8 10.6
Jan-22 11.3 18.1 13.6 17.2 15.8 20.0 12.3 12.3 7.2
Feb-22 13.1 17.9 12.0 16.2 14.8 14.1 9.3 12.2 6.8
Mar-22 10.9 16.7 9.2 15.7 13.0 13.5 12.1 11.0 12.6
Apr-22 7.0 15.6 8.7 15.0 10.3 12.9 13.5 10.8 10.4
May-22 6.8 13.8 6.6 13.8 8.0 13.2 13.2 10.5 11.7
Jun-22 6.4 12.3 6.6 11.5 8.2 12.5 13.9 10.9 10.5
Jul-22 6.6 12.0 5.9 11.6 8.7 13.5 12.3 11.5 11.3
Aug-22 6.8 11.0 5.2 10.4 9.3 13.1 12.7 11.6 11.5
Sep-22 7.1 11.7 5.0 9.8 10.2 11.5 12.7 10.7 10.9
Oct-22 6.2 11.5 6.3 8.4 10.1 10.6 11.7 9.6 12.6
Nov-22 5.9 11.0 6.9 9.1 10.9 10.7 10.7 8.8 12.1
Dec-22 7.2 10.5 6.4 11.6 10.9 11.1 11.1 9.1 12.0
Provincial Contributions to Overall Inflation of 9.9 Percent

Lusaka Province contributed the highest at 3.1 percentage points while Copperbelt Province contributed 2.2 percentage points to the overall annual inflation of 9.9 percent in the month under review. Southern province contributed 1.0 percentage points, while North-western Provinces had the lowest contribution of 0.4 percentage points (see Table 7).

Table 7: Provincial Contribution to Overall Annual Inflation Dec 2021-Dec 2022 (%)
Province Weight Dec- 2021* Jan- 2022* Feb- 2022* Mar- 2022* Apr- 2022* May- 2022* June- 2022* July- 2022* Aug- 2022* Sep- 2022* Oct- 2022* Nov- 2022* Dec- 2022*
National 1,000.00 16.4 15.1 14.2 13.1 11.5 10.2 9.7 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.7 9.8 9.9
Central 107.19 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8
Copperbelt 219.68 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2
Eastern 88.98 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Luapula 50.60 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6
Lusaka 283.89 4.6 4.6 4.3 3.8 3.0 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1
Northern 65.72 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
North- Western 32.33 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Southern 109.19 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0
Western 42.42 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

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Year-on-Year Inflation for December 2022 at 9.9 Percent

Annual inflation for December 2022 increased to 9.9 percent from 9.8 percent recorded in November, 2022. This means that on average, prices of goods and services increased by 9.9 percent between December 2021 and December 2022 (see Figure 2). This development was mainly attributed to movements in prices of non-food items.

Figure 2: Annual Inflation Rate, Dec 2021-Dec 2022 (%)

Annual Food and Non-Food Inflation

Annual food inflation for December 2022 was recorded at 11.9 percent compared to 12.1 percent in November 2022 (see Figure 3). This development was mainly attributed to Meats (Offal’s,  Pork  Chops,  Goat  Meat,  Chicken  Live,  Frozen  chicken);  Fruits  (Bananas,  Apples, Pineapples, Mangoes, Water Melon); Vegetables (Sweet Potato Leaves-Kalembul, Cassava Leaves, Okra, Green Beans, Eggplant, Impwa, Maize cobs, Onion, Mushroom) and cooking oil.

The annual non-food inflation for December 2022 was recorded at 7.3 percent from 6.7 percent in November 2022. This outturn was mainly attributed to increases in prices of non-food items such as Fuels & lubricants (Diesel, Petrol, Lubricants) and Purchase of Motor cars (Toyota Hilux, Nissan ALMERA 1.5, Nissan Hardbody.

Figure 3: Annual Food and Non-Food Inflation, Dec 2021-Dec 2022 (%)

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Overall Monthly Inflation Rate Increased to 0.8 Percent

The overall monthly inflation for December 2022 was recorded at 0.8 percent compared with 0.7 percent the previous month. This outturn was mainly attributed to price increases in non-food items (see Figure 4).

Figure 4: Overall Monthly Inflation, Dec 2021-Dec 2022 (%)

Monthly Inflation Rates for Food and Non-Food Items, December 2021-December 2022

Monthly food inflation for December 2022 was 0.5 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from 0.9 percent in November 2022. This development was mainly attributed to general price Movements for Meats (Brisket, Offal’s, Pork Chops, Goat Meat, Chicken Live, Frozen chicken, Tinned Meat); Milk products (Fresh Milk, Powdered milk, yoghurt) and Vegetables (Sweet Potato Leaves-Kalembula, Cassava Leaves, Okra, Green Beans, Eggplant, Impwa, Maize cobs, Onion, Mushroom).

Monthly non-food inflation for December 2022 was recorded at 1.1 percent from 0.5 percent in November 2022 (see Table 8). This outturn was mainly attributed to price increases for Fuels & lubricants (Diesel, Petrol); Purchase of Motor cars (Toyota Hilux, Toyota corolla, Nissan ALMERA 1.5, Nissan Hardbody).

Table 8: Overall Monthly Inflation Rate for Food and Non-Food Items, Dec 2021-Dec 2022 (%)
Weight: Dec- 2021 Jan- 2022 Feb- 2022 Mar- 2022 Apr- 2022 May- 2022 June- 2022 July- 2022 Aug- 2022 Sep- 2022 Oct- 2022 Nov- 2022 Dec- 2022
Total 1,000.00 0.6 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.7 1.1
Food 534.85 0.7 3.1 1.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.9 0.5
Non- Food 465.15 0.5 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.5 1.1
District Prices for Selected Products, December 2022

The Consumer Price Basket consists of 440 items which are spread across selected outlets in all the 116 districts of Zambia. Over 23,000 price quotations are collected from these outlets between the 1st and 10th of every month. The minimum and maximum prices for selected products by district are highlighted in Table 9.

Table 9: District Prices for Selected Products, December 2022
 

Product Description

 

Unit of Measure

 

Price (K)

Minimum  

Price (K)

Maximum
Location Location
Breakfast Mealie Meal 25 kg 140.00 Katete 220.00 Mafinga
Roller Mealie Meal 25 kg 110.00 Lusaka 180.00 Mwinilunga, Lukulu
Maize Grain 20 litre tin 55.00 Chingola 160.00 Mongu
Cooking Oil 2.5 Litres 92.00 Kitwe 170.00 Chilubi
Eggs Tray 40.00 Lusaka 106.00 Serenje
Sugar 2 Kg 40.00 Kitwe, Lukulu, Isoka 55.00 Ndola, Chingola, Mporokoso
Charcoal 50 kg bag 55.00 Kazungula 230.00 Lusaka
Cement 50 kg 117.00 Lusaka 165.00 Kaputa, Lukulu, Sesheke

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Economy Grows by 5.3% in the Third Quarter of 2022

Year on Year Quarterly Growth Q3 2022 GDP

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for the third quarter of 2022 show that the economy grew by 5.3 percent from 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2021. This represents a 2.0 percent increase in growth compared to the same quarter in 2021. These estimates are based on the year- on-year comparison of GDP at constant 2010 prices (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Quarterly GDP Growth Rates at Constant 2010 Prices, Q1 2021 – Q3** 2022

 

Industry Contribution to the 5.3 % growth in Q3 2022

The growth was mainly attributed to the performance of the following industries: Wholesale and retail trade (1.2%), Information & communication (1.2%), Transport & storage (1.1%), Education (0.9%), Accommodation and food service (0.5%) and Manufacturing (0.4%). However, negative growth rates were recorded in the Construction industry (-1.3%), and Agriculture, forestry & fishing (-0.1 %) (see Table 1).

Table 1: Gross Value-Added Growth Rates and Contribution to Growth at Constant 2010 Prices, Q3 2022 (%)
 

Industries

Growth Rates Contribution to growth
Q1* Q2* Q3** Q3**
Agriculture, forestry and fishing -5.1 -4.0 -1.3 -0.1
Mining and quarrying -8.8 -5.1 0.7 0.1
Manufacturing -2.8 11.7 5.1 0.4
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 9.7 7.0 11.5 0.2
Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 4.0 4.7 10.3 0.0
Construction -8.3 -10.3 -11.2 -1.3
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles -0.3 -7.1 6.2 1.2
Transportation and storage 3.4 19.6 23.7 1.1
Accommodation and food service activities 14.6 39.3 34.8 0.5
Information and communication 17.7 10.8 16.6 1.2
Financial and insurance activities -2.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Real estate activities 3.7 3.7 3.7 0.1
Professional, scientific and technical activities -5.7 -6.2 1.4 0.0
Administrative and support service activities -4.0 -5.2 2.4 0.0
Public administration and defense; compulsory social security 43.6 38.5 2.8 0.1
Education 29.5 26.5 14.4 0.9
Human health and social work activities -0.4 -1.6 2.8 0.1
Arts, entertainment and recreation 41.4 114.6 99.1 0.2
Other service activities 3.7 3.7 3.7 0.0
Total Gross Value Added for the economy 2.5 3.9 5.2 4.9
Taxes less subsidies -0.3 -7.1 6.2 0.3
Total for the economy, at market prices 2.3 3.4 5.3 5.3
Industry Growth rates in the third quarter of 2022

At industry level, the highest growth rates were recorded in Arts, entertainment & recreation (99.1%), Accommodation and food services (34.8%), Transport & storage (23.7%), Information & Communication (16.6%) Education (14.4%), and Electricity (11.5%). On the other hand, negative growth rates were recorded in the following in Construction (-11.2%), Agriculture, forestry and fishing (-1.3%) and in the Financial and Insurance services (-0.1) (see Table 1).

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